Climate change in the Fertile Crescent and implications of the recent Syrian drought

Before the Syrian uprising that began in 2011, the greater Fertile Crescent experienced the most severe drought in the instrumental record. For Syria, a country marked by poor governance and unsustainable agricultural and environmental policies, the drought had a catalytic effect, contributing to political unrest. We show that the recent decrease in Syrian precipitation is a combination of natural variability and a long-term drying trend, and the unusual severity of the observed drought is here shown to be highly unlikely without this trend. Precipitation changes in Syria are linked to rising mean sea-level pressure in the Eastern Mediterranean, which also shows a long-term trend. There has been also a…

• UD
  U.S. Department of Energy
• NO
  National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

  Award: NA10OAR4310137
• LE
  Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University
• MU
  Multidisciplinary University Research Initiative

  Award: UCLA 2090 G QA272
• OO
  Office of Naval Research

  Awards: N00014-12-1-0911, N00014-12-1, N00014