Adaptation, migration or extirpation: climate change outcomes for tree populations

Species distribution models predict a wholesale redistribution of trees in the next century, yet migratory responses necessary to spatially track climates far exceed maximum post-glacial rates. The extent to which populations will adapt will depend upon phenotypic variation, strength of selection, fecundity, interspecific competition, and biotic interactions. Populations of temperate and boreal trees show moderate to strong clines in phenology and growth along temperature gradients, indicating substantial local adaptation. Traits involved in local adaptation appear to be the product of small effects of many genes, and the resulting genotypic redundancy combined with high fecundity may facilitate rapid local…

• GC
  Genome Canada
• FG
  Forest Genetics Council of British Columbia
• GB
  Genome British Columbia
• NS
  Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada