BIOMOD – optimizing predictions of species distributions and projecting potential future shifts under global change

Abstract A new computation framework (BIOMOD: BIOdiversity MODelling) is presented, which aims to maximize the predictive accuracy of current species distributions and the reliability of future potential distributions using different types of statistical modelling methods. BIOMOD capitalizes on the different techniques used in static modelling to provide spatial predictions. It computes, for each species and in the same package, the four most widely used modelling techniques in species predictions, namely Generalized Linear Models (GLM), Generalized Additive Models (GAM), Classification and Regression Tree analysis (CART) and Artificial Neural Networks (ANN). BIOMOD was applied to 61 species of trees in Europe…