What limits fire? An examination of drivers of burnt area in Southern Africa

Abstract The factors controlling the extent of fire in Africa south of the equator were investigated using moderate resolution (500 m) satellite‐derived burned area maps and spatial data on the environmental factors thought to affect burnt area. A random forest regression tree procedure was used to determine the relative importance of each factor in explaining the burned area fraction and to address hypotheses concerned with human and climatic influences on the drivers of burnt area. The model explained 68% of the variance in burnt area. Tree cover, rainfall in the previous 2 years, and rainfall seasonality were the most important predictors. Human activities – represented by grazing, roads per unit area,…