Association Between Smoking and Risk of Bladder Cancer Among Men and Women

To evaluate the association between tobacco smoking and bladder cancer. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: Men (n = 281,394) and women (n = 186,134) of the National Institutes of Health-AARP (NIH-AARP) Diet and Health Study cohort completed a lifestyle questionnaire and were followed up between October 25, 1995, and December 31, 2006. Previous prospective cohort studies of smoking and incident bladder cancer were identified by systematic review and relative risks were estimated from fixed-effects models with heterogeneity assessed by the I(2) statistic. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Hazard ratios (HRs), PARs, and number needed to harm (NNH).

During 4,518,941 person-years of follow-up, incident bladder cancer occurred in 3896 men (144.0 per 100,000 person-years) and 627 women (34.5 per 100,000 person-years). Former smokers (119.8 per 100,000 person-years; HR, 2.22; 95% confidence interval [CI], 2.03-2.44; NNH, 1250) and current smokers (177.3 per 100,000 person-years; HR, 4.06; 95% CI, 3.66-4.50; NNH, 727) had higher risks of bladder cancer than never smokers (39.8 per 100,000 person-years). In contrast, the summary risk estimate for current smoking in 7 previous studies (initiated between 1963 and 1987) was 2.94 (95% CI, 2.45-3.54; I(2) = 0.0%). The PAR for ever smoking in our study was 0.50 (95% CI, 0.45-0.54) in men and 0.52 (95% CI, 0.45-0.59) in women.