Absolute Humidity and the Seasonal Onset of Influenza in the Continental United States

Much of the observed wintertime increase of mortality in temperate regions is attributed to seasonal influenza. A recent reanalysis of laboratory experiments indicates that absolute humidity strongly modulates the airborne survival and transmission of the influenza virus. Here, we extend these findings to the human population level, showing that the onset of increased wintertime influenza-related mortality in the United States is associated with anomalously low absolute humidity levels during the prior weeks. We then use an epidemiological model, in which observed absolute humidity conditions temper influenza transmission rates, to successfully simulate the seasonal cycle of observed influenza-related…

• UD
  U.S. Department of Homeland Security
• BA
  Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation
• NI
  National Institutes of Health

  Award: 5U01GM076497
• RI
  Radcliffe Institute for Advanced Study, Harvard University
• SA
  Science and Technology Directorate
• FI
  Fogarty International Center