Emissions pathways, climate change, and impacts on California

The magnitude of future climate change depends substantially on the greenhouse gas emission pathways we choose. Here we explore the implications of the highest and lowest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change emissions pathways for climate change and associated impacts in California. Based on climate projections from two state-of-the-art climate models with low and medium sensitivity (Parallel Climate Model and Hadley Centre Climate Model, version 3, respectively), we find that annual temperature increases nearly double from the lower B1 to the higher A1fi emissions scenario before 2100. Three of four simulations also show greater increases in summer temperatures as compared with winter. Extreme heat and…

• DA
  David and Lucile Packard Foundation
• UD
  U.S. Department of Energy
• WA
  William and Flora Hewlett Foundation
• CE
  California Energy Commission
• NC
  National Center for Atmospheric Research
• EF
  Energy Foundation
• MO
  Met Office
• NO
  National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration