Probability of Regaining Dexterity in the Flaccid Upper Limb

In 102 stroke patients, dexterity and paresis were measured with the Action Research Arm Test, Motricity Index, and Fugl-Meyer motor evaluation. For model development, 23 candidate determinants were selected. Logistic regression analysis was used for prognostic factors and model development.

At 6 months, some dexterity in the paretic arm was found in 38%, and complete functional recovery was seen in 11.6% of the patients. Total anterior circulation infarcts, right hemisphere strokes, homonymous hemianopia, visual gaze deficit, visual inattention, and paresis were statistically significant related to a poor arm function. Motricity Index leg scores of at least 25 points in the first week and Fugl-Meyer arm scores of 11 points in the second week increasing to 19 points in the fourth week raised the probability of developing some dexterity (Action Research Arm Test >or=10 points) from 74% (positive predictive value [PPV], 0.74; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.63 to 0.86) to 94% (PPV, 0.83; 95% CI, 0.76 to 0.91) at 6 months. No change in probabilities of prediction dexterity was found after 4 weeks.