Forecasting Power Output of Photovoltaic Systems Based on Weather Classification and Support Vector Machines

Due to the growing demand on renewable energy, photovoltaic (PV) generation systems have increased considerably in recent years. However, the power output of PV systems is affected by different weather conditions. Accurate forecasting of PV power output is important for system reliability and promoting large-scale PV deployment. This paper proposes algorithms to forecast power output of PV systems based upon weather classification and support vector machines (SVM). In the process, the weather conditions are divided into four types which are clear sky, cloudy day, foggy day, and rainy day. In this paper, a one-day-ahead PV power output forecasting model for a single station is derived based on the weather…