State Estimation and Control of Electric Loads to Manage Real-Time Energy Imbalance

This paper explores methods to coordinate aggregations of thermostatically controlled loads (TCLs; including air conditioners and refrigerators) to manage frequency and energy imbalances in power systems. We focus on opportunities to centrally control loads with high accuracy but low requirements for sensing and communications infrastructure. We compare cases when measured load state information (e.g., power consumption and temperature) is 1) available in real time; 2) available, but not in real time; and 3) not available. We use Markov chain models to describe the temperature state evolution of populations of TCLs, and Kalman filtering for both state and joint parameter/state estimation. A look-ahead…