Reliability analysis of flood defence systems in the Netherlands

In recent years an advanced program for reliability analysis of dike systems has been under development in the Netherlands. This paper describes the global data requirements for application and the setup of the models in the Netherlands. The analysis generates an estimate of the probability of system failure and an indication of the contribution that each dike section makes to the probability of failure. Thus weak links in the dike ring can be identified, as well as the parameter that contributes most to the probability.