Familial Risk and Heritability of Cancer Among Twins in Nordic Countries

Estimates of familial cancer risk from population-based studies are essential components of cancer risk prediction.

To estimate familial risk and heritability of cancer types in a large twin cohort. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: Prospective study of 80,309 monozygotic and 123,382 same-sex dizygotic twin individuals (N = 203,691) within the population-based registers of Denmark, Finland, Norway, and Sweden. Twins were followed up a median of 32 years between 1943 and 2010. There were 50,990 individuals who died of any cause, and 3804 who emigrated and were lost to follow-up. EXPOSURES: Shared environmental and heritable risk factors among pairs of twins. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: The main outcome was incident cancer. Time-to-event analyses were used to estimate familial risk (risk of cancer in an individual given a twin's development of cancer) and heritability (proportion of variance in cancer risk due to interindividual genetic differences) with follow-up via cancer registries. Statistical models adjusted for age and follow-up time, and accounted for censoring and competing risk of death.