Long-term patterns of European PV output using 30 years of validated hourly reanalysis and satellite data

Solar PV is rapidly growing globally, creating difficult questions around how to efficiently integrate it into national electricity grids. Its time-varying power output is difficult to model credibly because it depends on complex and variable weather systems, leading to difficulty in understanding its potential and limitations. We demonstrate how the MERRA and MERRA-2 global meteorological reanalyses as well as the Meteosat-based CM-SAF SARAH satellite dataset can be used to produce hourly PV simulations across Europe. To validate these simulations, we gather metered time series from more than 1000 PV systems as well as national aggregate output reported by transmission network operators. We find slightly…

• UE
  UK Energy Research Centre

  Award: EP/L024756/1
• IC
  Imperial College London
• EA
  Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council

  Awards: EP/L024756/1, EP/L024756/1
• ER
  European Research Council

  Award: StG 2012–313553