Importing Political Polarization? The Electoral Consequences of Rising Trade Exposure

Has rising import competition contributed to the polarization of US politics? Analyzing multiple measures of political expression and results of congressional and presidential elections spanning the period 2000 through 2016, we find strong though not definitive evidence of an ideological realignment in trade-exposed local labor markets that commences prior to the divisive 2016 US presidential election. Exploiting the exogenous component of rising import competition by China, we find that trade exposed electoral districts simultaneously exhibit growing ideological polarization in some domains, meaning expanding support for both strong-left and strong-right views, and pure rightward shifts in others.…

• NS
  National Science Foundation

  Awards: SES-1227334, 1227334
• RS
  Russell Sage Foundation
• SR
  Smith Richardson Foundation
• SW
  Sid W. Richardson Foundation
• SF
  Sage Foundation
• A
  Accenture
• SN
  Schweizerischer Nationalfonds zur Förderung der Wissenschaftlichen Forschung

  Awards: 155804, 154446
• RS
  Russian Science Foundation
• UO
  University of California, San Diego