Can we predict ectotherm responses to climate change using thermal performance curves and body temperatures?

Abstract Thermal performance curves ( TPC s), which quantify how an ectotherm's body temperature ( T b ) affects its performance or fitness, are often used in an attempt to predict organismal responses to climate change. Here, we examine the key – but often biologically unreasonable – assumptions underlying this approach; for example, that physiology and thermal regimes are invariant over ontogeny, space and time, and also that TPC s are independent of previously experienced T b. We show how a critical consideration of these assumptions can lead to biologically useful hypotheses and experimental designs. For example, rather than assuming that TPC s are fixed during ontogeny, one can measure TPC s for each…

• NS
  National Science Foundation

  Awards: 1557868, IOS 1038016, 1155325
• DF
  Danmarks Frie Forskningsfond

  Award: 0602‐01369B
• UM
  Universiti Malaysia Sarawak
• NS
  Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada