On the Practical Interpretability of Cross-Lagged Panel Models: Rethinking a Developmental Workhorse

Reciprocal feedback processes between experience and development are central to contemporary developmental theory. Autoregressive cross-lagged panel (ARCL) models represent a common analytic approach intended to test such dynamics. The authors demonstrate that-despite the ARCL model's intuitive appeal-it typically (a) fails to align with the theoretical processes that it is intended to test and (b) yields estimates that are difficult to interpret meaningfully. Specifically, using a Monte Carlo simulation and two empirical examples concerning the reciprocal relation between spanking and child aggression, it is shown that the cross-lagged estimates derived from the ARCL model reflect a weighted-and typically…

• NI
  National Institutes of Health
• NI
  National Institute on Drug Abuse
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  NIH Office of the Director
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  National Institute of Child Health and Human Development

  Awards: 2PO1HD039667, 1PO1HD39667
• NC
  National Center on Minority Health and Health Disparities
• OO
  Office of Behavioral and Social Sciences Research