Precipitation variability increases in a warmer climate

Abstract Understanding changes in precipitation variability is essential for a complete explanation of the hydrologic cycle’s response to warming and its impacts. While changes in mean and extreme precipitation have been studied intensively, precipitation variability has received less attention, despite its theoretical and practical importance. Here, we show that precipitation variability in most climate models increases over a majority of global land area in response to warming (66% of land has a robust increase in variability of seasonal-mean precipitation). Comparing recent decades to RCP8.5 projections for the end of the 21 st century, we find that in the global, multi-model mean, precipitation variability…

• NS
  National Science Foundation
• UD
  U.S. Department of Energy

  Awards: DE-FC02-97ER62402, FC02-97ER62402
• OO
  Office of Science

  Awards: Cooperative Agreement DE-FC02-97ER62402, DE-FC02-97ER62402