articleAmerican Economic ReviewOct 29, 2019Closed access

Did Austerity Cause Brexit?

TFThiemo Fetzer

University of Warwick

Indexed incrossref

Abstract

This paper documents a significant association between the exposure of an individual or area to the UK government’s austerity-induced welfare reforms begun in 2010, and the following: the subsequent rise in support for the UK Independence Party, an important correlate of Leave support in the 2016 UK referendum on European Union membership; broader individual-level measures of political dissatisfaction; and direct measures of support for Leave. Leveraging data from all UK electoral contests since 2000, along with detailed, individual-level panel data, the findings suggest that the EU referendum could have resulted in a Remain victory had it not been for austerity. (JEL D72, F15, F60, H53, I38)

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Topics & keywords

Topics
Keywords
  • Austerity
  • Brexit
  • Referendum
  • Victory
  • Independence (probability theory)
  • Political science
  • Panel data
  • Government (linguistics)
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