Association of Primary Care Physician Supply With Population Mortality in the United States, 2005-2015

Recent US health care reforms incentivize improved population health outcomes and primary care functions. It remains unclear how much improving primary care physician supply can improve population health, independent of other health care and socioeconomic factors.

To identify primary care physician supply changes across US counties from 2005-2015 and associations between such changes and population mortality. Design, Setting, and Participants: This epidemiological study evaluated US population data and individual-level claims data linked to mortality from 2005 to 2015 against changes in primary care and specialist physician supply from 2005 to 2015. Data from 3142 US counties, 7144 primary care service areas, and 306 hospital referral regions were used to investigate the association of primary care physician supply with changes in life expectancy and cause-specific mortality after adjustment for health care, demographic, socioeconomic, and behavioral covariates. Analysis was performed from March to July 2018. Main Outcomes and Measures: Age-standardized life expectancy, cause-specific mortality, and restricted mean survival time.