Global expansion and redistribution of Aedes-borne virus transmission risk with climate change

Forecasting the impacts of climate change on Aedes-borne viruses-especially dengue, chikungunya, and Zika-is a key component of public health preparedness. We apply an empirically parameterized model of viral transmission by the vectors Aedes aegypti and Ae. albopictus, as a function of temperature, to predict cumulative monthly global transmission risk in current climates, and compare them with projected risk in 2050 and 2080 based on general circulation models (GCMs). Our results show that if mosquito range shifts track optimal temperature ranges for transmission (21.3-34.0°C for Ae. aegypti; 19.9-29.4°C for Ae. albopictus), we can expect poleward shifts in Aedes-borne virus distributions. However, the…

• NS
  National Science Foundation

  Awards: 1640780, DEB-1518681, DEB-1640780, 1518681, 1641145
• CF
  Centers for Disease Control and Prevention

  Awards: 1U01CK000510-01, 1U01CK000510
• DF
  Directorate for Biological Sciences

  Awards: 1518681, 1641145, 1640780
• SW
  Stanford Woods Institute for the Environment
• SB
  Stanford Bio-X
• DO
  Division of Environmental Biology

  Awards: 1641145, 1640780, 1518681, DEB-1518681
• SU
  Stanford University Center for Innovation in Global Health