Uncertainty in ensembles of global biodiversity scenarios
Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique · Laboratoire d'Écologie Alpine · +2 more institutions
Abstract
While there is a clear demand for scenarios that provide alternative states in biodiversity with respect to future emissions, a thorough analysis and communication of the associated uncertainties is still missing. Here, we modelled the global distribution of ~11,500 amphibian, bird and mammal species and project their climatic suitability into the time horizon 2050 and 2070, while varying the input data used. By this, we explore the uncertainties originating from selecting species distribution models (SDMs), dispersal strategies, global circulation models (GCMs), and representative concentration pathways (RCPs). We demonstrate the overwhelming influence of SDMs and RCPs on future biodiversity projections,…
Citation impact
- FWCI
- 33.14
- Percentile
- 100%
- References
- 33
Authors
5- WTWilfried ThuillerCorresponding
Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, Laboratoire d'Écologie Alpine, Université Grenoble Alpes
- MGMaya Guéguen
Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, Laboratoire d'Écologie Alpine, Université Grenoble Alpes
- JRJulien Renaud
Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, Laboratoire d'Écologie Alpine, Université Grenoble Alpes
- DNDirk Nikolaus Karger
Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research
- NENiklaus E. Zimmermann
Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research
Topics & keywords
- Biological dispersal
- Representative Concentration Pathways
- Biodiversity
- Environmental science
- Range (aeronautics)
- Species distribution
- General Circulation Model
- Global biodiversity
- Life in Land