Understanding the Effect of Accuracy on Trust in Machine Learning Models

We address a relatively under-explored aspect of human-computer interaction: people's abilities to understand the relationship between a machine learning model's stated performance on held-out data and its expected performance post deployment. We conduct large-scale, randomized human-subject experiments to examine whether laypeople's trust in a model, measured in terms of both the frequency with which they revise their predictions to match those of the model and their self-reported levels of trust in the model, varies depending on the model's stated accuracy on held-out data and on its observed accuracy in practice. We find that people's trust in a model is affected by both its stated accuracy and its observed…