Climate policy implications of nonlinear decline of Arctic land permafrost and other cryosphere elements

Arctic feedbacks accelerate climate change through carbon releases from thawing permafrost and higher solar absorption from reductions in the surface albedo, following loss of sea ice and land snow. Here, we include dynamic emulators of complex physical models in the integrated assessment model PAGE-ICE to explore nonlinear transitions in the Arctic feedbacks and their subsequent impacts on the global climate and economy under the Paris Agreement scenarios. The permafrost feedback is increasingly positive in warmer climates, while the albedo feedback weakens as the ice and snow melt. Combined, these two factors lead to significant increases in the mean discounted economic effect of climate change: +4.0% ($24.8…

• NS
  National Science Foundation

  Awards: 1503559, 1900795
• UD
  U.S. Department of Energy

  Award: 1503559
• NA
  National Aeronautics and Space Administration

  Awards: NNX17AC59A, NNX14A154G
• UO
  University of South Florida
• DF
  Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs, UK Government
• UC
  University College London
• EC
  European Commission

  Award: 603887
• MO
  Met Office
• EU
  Erasmus Universiteit Rotterdam
• OO
  Office of Science
• ER
  Erasmus Research Institute of Management
• EA
  Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council

  Award: EP/R01860X/1