Ice sheet contributions to future sea-level rise from structured expert judgment
University of Bristol · Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars · +4 more institutions
Abstract
Despite considerable advances in process understanding, numerical modeling, and the observational record of ice sheet contributions to global mean sea-level rise (SLR) since the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, severe limitations remain in the predictive capability of ice sheet models. As a consequence, the potential contributions of ice sheets remain the largest source of uncertainty in projecting future SLR. Here, we report the findings of a structured expert judgement study, using unique techniques for modeling correlations between inter- and intra-ice sheet processes and their tail dependences. We find that since the AR5, expert uncertainty has grown, in…
Citation impact
- FWCI
- 55.04
- Percentile
- 100%
- References
- 45
Authors
5- JBJonathan BamberCorresponding
University of Bristol
- MOMichael Oppenheimer
Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, Princeton University
- RERobert E. Kopp
Rutgers, The State University of New Jersey
- WAWilly Aspinall
University of Bristol
- RCRoger Cooke
Resources For The Future, Delft University of Technology
Topics & keywords
- Future sea level
- Ice sheet
- Percentile
- Climatology
- Ice-sheet model
- Climate change
- Environmental science
- Greenland ice sheet