Amplification of future energy demand growth due to climate change
NSF National Center for Atmospheric Research · Boston University · +3 more institutions
Abstract
Future energy demand is likely to increase due to climate change, but the magnitude depends on many interacting sources of uncertainty. We combine econometrically estimated responses of energy use to income, hot and cold days with future projections of spatial population and national income under five socioeconomic scenarios and temperature increases around 2050 for two emission scenarios simulated by 21 Earth System Models (ESMs). Here we show that, across 210 realizations of socioeconomic and climate scenarios, vigorous (moderate) warming increases global climate-exposed energy demand before adaptation around 2050 by 25-58% (11-27%), on top of a factor 1.7-2.8 increase above present-day due to socioeconomic…
Citation impact
- FWCI
- 106.06
- Percentile
- 100%
- References
- 57
Authors
3Topics & keywords
- Socioeconomic status
- Climate change
- Energy demand
- Natural resource economics
- Tropics
- Population
- Environmental science
- Climate model
- Climate action
Funding
- NSNational Science FoundationAwards: 1240507, GEO-1240507
- UDU.S. Department of EnergyAwards: DE-SC0016162, DE-SC0005171
- NANational Aeronautics and Space Administration
- NCNational Center for Atmospheric Research
- ECEuropean CommissionAward: 756194
- OOOffice of ScienceAwards: DE-SC0016162, DE-SC0005171
- ARAmes Research Center
- BABiological and Environmental ResearchAwards: DE-SC0016162, DE-SC0005171