Global ensemble projections reveal trophic amplification of ocean biomass declines with climate change

While the physical dimensions of climate change are now routinely assessed through multimodel intercomparisons, projected impacts on the global ocean ecosystem generally rely on individual models with a specific set of assumptions. To address these single-model limitations, we present standardized ensemble projections from six global marine ecosystem models forced with two Earth system models and four emission scenarios with and without fishing. We derive average biomass trends and associated uncertainties across the marine food web. Without fishing, mean global animal biomass decreased by 5% (±4% SD) under low emissions and 17% (±11% SD) under high emissions by 2100, with an average 5% decline for every 1 °C…

• DF
  Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs, UK Government
• EC
  European Commission

  Awards: 678193, 689518, 682602
• AN
  Agence Nationale de la Recherche
• BF
  Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung

  Award: 01LS1201A1
• NF
  Nippon Foundation
• OF
  Ocean Frontier Institute
• NS
  Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada
• AR
  Australian Research Council