Detecting the impact of temperature on transmission of Zika, dengue, and chikungunya using mechanistic models

Recent epidemics of Zika, dengue, and chikungunya have heightened the need to understand the seasonal and geographic range of transmission by Aedes aegypti and Ae. albopictus mosquitoes. We use mechanistic transmission models to derive predictions for how the probability and magnitude of transmission for Zika, chikungunya, and dengue change with mean temperature, and we show that these predictions are well matched by human case data. Across all three viruses, models and human case data both show that transmission occurs between 18-34°C with maximal transmission occurring in a range from 26-29°C. Controlling for population size and two socioeconomic factors, temperature-dependent transmission based on our…

• NS
  National Science Foundation

  Awards: R01GM109499, 1640780, DEB-1518681, 1241889, R01TW010286-01, EF-1241889, DEB-1640780, CAREER, 1518681
• UE
  U.S. Environmental Protection Agency

  Awards: CAREER 83518801, 83518801
• UD
  U.S. Department of Agriculture

  Awards: R01TW010286-01, R01GM109499, 2009-35102-0543, EF-1241889
• NI
  National Institutes of Health

  Awards: R01TW010286-01, R01GM109499, EF-1241889, R01TW010286
• CF
  Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
• SW
  Stanford Woods Institute for the Environment
• SB
  Stanford Bio-X
• SU
  Stanford University Center for Innovation in Global Health