Improved inference of time-varying reproduction numbers during infectious disease outbreaks
Canterbury Christ Church University · University of Oxford · +15 more institutions
Abstract
Accurate estimation of the parameters characterising infectious disease transmission is vital for optimising control interventions during epidemics. A valuable metric for assessing the current threat posed by an outbreak is the time-dependent reproduction number, i.e. the expected number of secondary cases caused by each infected individual. This quantity can be estimated using data on the numbers of observed new cases at successive times during an epidemic and the distribution of the serial interval (the time between symptomatic cases in a transmission chain). Some methods for estimating the reproduction number rely on pre-existing estimates of the serial interval distribution and assume that the entire…
Citation impact
- FWCI
- 45.61
- Percentile
- 100%
- References
- 102
Authors
13- RNRobin N. ThompsonCorresponding
Canterbury Christ Church University, University of Oxford
- JSJ.E. Stockwin
University of Oxford
- RDRolina D. van Gaalen
National Institute for Public Health and the Environment
- JAJonathan A. Polonsky
World Health Organization, University of Geneva
- ZNZhian N. Kamvar
Imperial College London
Topics & keywords
- Outbreak
- Infectious disease (medical specialty)
- Basic reproduction number
- Transmission (telecommunications)
- Transmissibility (structural dynamics)
- Ebola virus
- Inference
- Disease
- Good health and well-being