Projected Marine Heatwaves in the 21st Century and the Potential for Ecological Impact

Marine heatwaves (MHWs) are extreme climatic events in oceanic systems that can have devastating impacts on ecosystems, causing abrupt ecological changes and socioeconomic consequences. Several prominent MHWs have attracted scientific and public interest, and recent assessments have documented global and regional increases in their frequency. However, for proactive marine management, it is critical to understand how patterns might change in the future. Here we estimate future changes in MHWs to the end of the 21st century, as simulated by the CMIP5 global climate model projections. Significant increases in MHW intensity and count of annual MHW days are projected to accelerate, with many parts of the ocean…

• AG
  Australian Government

  Award: CE170100023
• SR
  Sight Research UK

  Awards: NE/H017151/1, NE/J022446/1, NE/J021938/1, NE/N00678X/1, NE/J024082/1
• NE
  Natural Environment Research Council

  Awards: NE/N00678X/1, NE/J022446/1, NE/J024082/1, NE/H017151/1, NE/N00678X/1, NE/J021938/1
• AR
  Australian Research Council

  Awards: CE170100023, FT170100106