articleGeophysical Research LettersJan 4, 2020HYBRID OA

Causes of Higher Climate Sensitivity in CMIP6 Models

MDMark D. ZelinkaTATimothy A. MyersDTDaniel T. McCoySPStephen Po–ChedleyPCPeter Caldwell

Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory · University of Leeds · +2 more institutions

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Abstract

Abstract Equilibrium climate sensitivity, the global surface temperature response to CO doubling, has been persistently uncertain. Recent consensus places it likely within 1.5–4.5 K. Global climate models (GCMs), which attempt to represent all relevant physical processes, provide the most direct means of estimating climate sensitivity via CO quadrupling experiments. Here we show that the closely related effective climate sensitivity has increased substantially in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6), with values spanning 1.8–5.6 K across 27 GCMs and exceeding 4.5 K in 10 of them. This (statistically insignificant) increase is primarily due to stronger positive cloud feedbacks from decreasing…

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Topics & keywords

Topics
Keywords
  • Coupled model intercomparison project
  • Extratropical cyclone
  • Climate sensitivity
  • Climatology
  • Climate model
  • Cloud feedback
  • Environmental science
  • Cloud cover
UN Sustainable Development Goals
  • Climate action
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