Preliminary estimation of the basic reproduction number of novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) in China, from 2019 to 2020: A data-driven analysis in the early phase of the outbreak
Chinese University of Hong Kong · Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shenzhen · +6 more institutions
Abstract
BackgroundsAn ongoing outbreak of a novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) pneumonia hit a major city in China, Wuhan, December 2019 and subsequently reached other provinces/regions of China and other countries. We present estimates of the basic reproduction number, R0, of 2019-nCoV in the early phase of the outbreak.MethodsAccounting for the impact of the variations in disease reporting rate, we modelled the epidemic curve of 2019-nCoV cases time series, in mainland China from January 10 to January 24, 2020, through the exponential growth. With the estimated intrinsic growth rate (γ), we estimated R0 by using the serial intervals (SI) of two other well-known coronavirus diseases, MERS and SARS, as approximations for…
Citation impact
- FWCI
- 65.10
- Percentile
- 100%
- References
- 22
Authors
11- SZShi ZhaoCorresponding
Chinese University of Hong Kong, Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shenzhen
- QLQianyin LinCorresponding
University of Michigan
- JRJinjun RanCorresponding
HKU-Pasteur Research Pole, University of Hong Kong
- SSSalihu S. MusaCorresponding
Hong Kong Polytechnic University
- GYGuangpu YangCorresponding
Chinese University of Hong Kong
Topics & keywords
- Outbreak
- Basic reproduction number
- Mainland China
- Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)
- Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2)
- Coronavirus
- China
- Demography
- Good health and well-being