Early dynamics of transmission and control of COVID-19: a mathematical modelling study

Abstract Background An outbreak of the novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 has led to 46,997 confirmed cases as of 13 th February 2020. Understanding the early transmission dynamics of the infection and evaluating the effectiveness of control measures is crucial for assessing the potential for sustained transmission to occur in new areas. Methods We combined a stochastic transmission model with data on cases of novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in Wuhan and international cases that originated in Wuhan to estimate how transmission had varied over time during January and February 2020. Based on these estimates, we then calculated the probability that newly introduced cases might generate outbreaks in other areas.…

• BA
  Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation

  Award: INV-003174
• WT
  Wellcome Trust

  Awards: 206250, 210758/Z/18/Z, 206250/Z/17/Z, Z/17/Z, 210758
• NI
  National Institute for Health and Care Research

  Award: 16/137/109
• MR
  Medical Research Council

  Award: MR/S003975/1