An updated estimation of the risk of transmission of the novel coronavirus (2019-nCov)

The basic reproduction number of an infectious agent is the average number of infections one case can generate over the course of the infectious period, in a naïve, uninfected population. It is well-known that the estimation of this number may vary due to several methodological issues, including different assumptions and choice of parameters, utilized models, used datasets and estimation period. With the spreading of the novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) infection, the reproduction number has been found to vary, reflecting the dynamics of transmission of the coronavirus outbreak as well as the case reporting rate. Due to significant variations in the control strategies, which have been changing over time, and…

• FI
  Fields Institute for Research in Mathematical Sciences
• NN
  National Natural Science Foundation of China

  Awards: 61772017, 11631012
• TY
  Tian Yuan Mathematical Foundation
• NS
  Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada

  Awards: 105588, 105588-2011
• DO
  Division of Mathematical Sciences