Phase-adjusted estimation of the number of Coronavirus Disease 2019 cases in Wuhan, China

Wang, Huwen; Wang, Zezhou; Dong, Yinqiao; Chang, Ruijie; Xu, Chen; Yu, Xiaoyue; Zhang, Shuxian; Tsamlag, Lhakpa; Shang, Meili; Huang, Jinyan; Wang, Ying; Xu, Gang; Tian, Shen; Zhang, Xinxin; Cai, Yong

doi:10.1038/s41421-020-0148-0

articleCell DiscoveryFeb 24, 2020GOLD OA

Phase-adjusted estimation of the number of Coronavirus Disease 2019 cases in Wuhan, China

HWHuwen Wang ZWZezhou Wang YDYinqiao Dong RCRuijie Chang CXChen Xu

Shanghai Jiao Tong University · Shanghai Medical College of Fudan University · +5 more institutions

PubMed

Indexed incrossrefdoajpubmed

Abstract

Abstract An outbreak of clusters of viral pneumonia due to a novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV/SARS-CoV-2) happened in Wuhan, Hubei Province in China in December 2019. Since the outbreak, several groups reported estimated R 0 of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) and generated valuable prediction for the early phase of this outbreak. After implementation of strict prevention and control measures in China, new estimation is needed. An infectious disease dynamics SEIR (Susceptible, Exposed, Infectious, and Removed) model was applied to estimate the epidemic trend in Wuhan, China under two assumptions of R t . In the first assumption, R t was assumed to maintain over 1. The estimated number of infections would…

Citation impact

479

total citations

FWCI: 16.03
Percentile: 100%
References: 28

Citations per year

Authors

15

Topics & keywords

Topics

Keywords

Outbreak
Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)
China
Estimation
Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2)
Coronavirus
Transmission (telecommunications)
2019-20 coronavirus outbreak

UN Sustainable Development Goals

Good health and well-being

No related works found for this paper.