Estimation of the Transmission Risk of the 2019-nCoV and Its Implication for Public Health Interventions

Since the emergence of the first cases in Wuhan, China, the novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) infection has been quickly spreading out to other provinces and neighboring countries. Estimation of the basic reproduction number by means of mathematical modeling can be helpful for determining the potential and severity of an outbreak and providing critical information for identifying the type of disease interventions and intensity. A deterministic compartmental model was devised based on the clinical progression of the disease, epidemiological status of the individuals, and intervention measures. The estimations based on likelihood and model analysis show that the control reproduction number may be as high as 6.47…

• NN
  National Natural Science Foundation of China

  Awards: 61772017, 11631012
• CE
  Canada Excellence Research Chairs, Government of Canada

  Award: 230720
• NS
  Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada

  Award: 105588-2011