Modified SEIR and AI prediction of the epidemics trend of COVID-19 in China under public health interventions
Macau University of Science and Technology · Guangzhou Medical University · +5 more institutions
Abstract
, the period of mass migration for the annual Spring Festival. To contain its spread, China adopted unprecedented nationwide interventions on January 23 2020. These policies included large-scale quarantine, strict controls on travel and extensive monitoring of suspected cases. However, it is unknown whether these policies have had an impact on the epidemic. We sought to show how these control measures impacted the containment of the epidemic.
We integrated population migration data before and after January 23 and most updated COVID-19 epidemiological data into the Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Removed (SEIR) model to derive the epidemic curve. We also used an artificial intelligence (AI) approach, trained on the 2003 SARS data, to predict the epidemic.
Citation impact
- FWCI
- 47.14
- Percentile
- 100%
- References
- 10
Authors
26- ZYZifeng Yang
Macau University of Science and Technology, Guangzhou Medical University, First Affiliated Hospital of Guangzhou Medical University, State Key Laboratory of Respiratory Disease
- ZZZhiqi Zeng
Guangzhou Medical University, State Key Laboratory of Respiratory Disease, First Affiliated Hospital of Guangzhou Medical University
- KWKe Wang
- SWSook‐San Wong
State Key Laboratory of Respiratory Disease, Guangzhou Medical University, University of Hong Kong, First Affiliated Hospital of Guangzhou Medical University
- WLWenhua Liang
First Affiliated Hospital of Guangzhou Medical University, Guangzhou Medical University, State Key Laboratory of Respiratory Disease
Topics & keywords
- Quarantine
- Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)
- Outbreak
- China
- Mainland China
- Medicine
- Demography
- Public health interventions
- Good health and well-being