Past warming trend constrains future warming in CMIP6 models
ETH Zurich · University of Leeds
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Abstract
Future global warming estimates have been similar across past assessments, but several climate models of the latest Sixth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) simulate much stronger warming, apparently inconsistent with past assessments. Here, we show that projected future warming is correlated with the simulated warming trend during recent decades across CMIP5 and CMIP6 models, enabling us to constrain future warming based on consistency with the observed warming. These findings carry important policy-relevant implications: The observationally constrained CMIP6 median warming in high emissions and ambitious mitigation scenarios is over 16 and 14% lower by 2050 compared to the raw CMIP6 median,…
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Authors
7Topics & keywords
Topics
Keywords
- Global warming
- Warming up
- Environmental science
- Climatology
- Climate change
- Ecology
- Geology
- Medicine
UN Sustainable Development Goals
- Climate action
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