Quantifying SARS-CoV-2 transmission suggests epidemic control with digital contact tracing

Abstract The newly emergent human virus SARS-CoV-2 is resulting in high fatality rates and incapacitated health systems. Preventing further transmission is a priority. We analysed key parameters of epidemic spread to estimate the contribution of different transmission routes and determine requirements for case isolation and contact-tracing needed to stop the epidemic. We conclude that viral spread is too fast to be contained by manual contact tracing, but could be controlled if this process was faster, more efficient and happened at scale. A contact-tracing App which builds a memory of proximity contacts and immediately notifies contacts of positive cases can achieve epidemic control if used by enough people.…

• LK
  Li Ka Shing Foundation
• WT
  Wellcome Trust

  Awards: Z/17/Z, 206298/Z/17/Z, 206298