Substantial undocumented infection facilitates the rapid dissemination of novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2)

Estimation of the prevalence and contagiousness of undocumented novel coronavirus [severe acute respiratory syndrome-coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2)] infections is critical for understanding the overall prevalence and pandemic potential of this disease. Here, we use observations of reported infection within China, in conjunction with mobility data, a networked dynamic metapopulation model, and Bayesian inference, to infer critical epidemiological characteristics associated with SARS-CoV-2, including the fraction of undocumented infections and their contagiousness. We estimate that 86% of all infections were undocumented [95% credible interval (CI): 82-90%] before the 23 January 2020 travel restrictions. The…

• MR
  Medical Research Council

  Awards: MR/R015600/1, MC_PC_19012
• NI
  National Institute of General Medical Sciences

  Award: GM110748
• NI
  National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases

  Award: AI145883