Calculating the sample size required for developing a clinical prediction model

Clinical prediction models aim to predict outcomes in individuals, to inform diagnosis or prognosis in healthcare. Hundreds of prediction models are published in the medical literature each year, yet many are developed using a dataset that is too small for the total number of participants or outcome events. This leads to inaccurate predictions and consequently incorrect healthcare decisions for some individuals. In this article, the authors provide guidance on how to calculate the sample size required to develop a clinical prediction model.

• GC
  Georgia Clinical and Translational Science Alliance

  Award: UL1 TR002243
• NI
  National Institute for Health and Care Research
• DO
  Department of Health and Social Care
• NO
  Nederlandse Organisatie voor Wetenschappelijk Onderzoek

  Awards: 918.10.615, project 9120.8004, 9120.8004
• NI
  National Institutes of Health

  Awards: TR002243, UL1 TR002243
• NS
  NIHR School for Primary Care Research
• NC
  National Center for Advancing Translational Sciences

  Awards: UL1 TR002243, TR002243