Advances in understanding large‐scale responses of the water cycle to climate change

Globally, thermodynamics explains an increase in atmospheric water vapor with warming of around 7%/°C near to the surface. In contrast, global precipitation and evaporation are constrained by the Earth's energy balance to increase at ∼2-3%/°C. However, this rate of increase is suppressed by rapid atmospheric adjustments in response to greenhouse gases and absorbing aerosols that directly alter the atmospheric energy budget. Rapid adjustments to forcings, cooling effects from scattering aerosol, and observational uncertainty can explain why observed global precipitation responses are currently difficult to detect but are expected to emerge and accelerate as warming increases and aerosol forcing diminishes.…

• NS
  National Science Foundation

  Awards: 1947282, IA 1844590, 1844590
• UD
  U.S. Department of Energy

  Awards: IA 1844590, 1844590
• NC
  National Center for Atmospheric Research

  Award: 1947282
• RS
  Royal Society

  Award: WM140025
• SR
  Sight Research UK

  Awards: NE/R01079X/1, NE/K00896X/1, NE/N006054/1, NE/N006038/1, NE/R016518/1, NE/K005480/1
• WF
  Wolfson Foundation

  Award: WM140025
• NE
  Natural Environment Research Council

  Awards: NE/R01079X/1, NE/N006054/1, NE/K00896X/1, NE/N006054/1, NE/K005480/1, NE/R016518/1, NE/N006038/1
• NC
  National Centre for Earth Observation