Projecting hospital utilization during the COVID-19 outbreaks in the United States

In the wake of community coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) transmission in the United States, there is a growing public health concern regarding the adequacy of resources to treat infected cases. Hospital beds, intensive care units (ICUs), and ventilators are vital for the treatment of patients with severe illness. To project the timing of the outbreak peak and the number of ICU beds required at peak, we simulated a COVID-19 outbreak parameterized with the US population demographics. In scenario analyses, we varied the delay from symptom onset to self-isolation, the proportion of symptomatic individuals practicing self-isolation, and the basic reproduction number R 0 . Without self-isolation, when R 0 = 2.5,…

• NS
  National Science Foundation

  Award: 2027755
• NO
  Notsew Orm Sands Foundation
• NI
  National Institutes of Health

  Awards: 1R01AI151176-01, grant K01 AI141576, RAPID-2027755, 1RO1AI151176-01, UO1-GM087719, K01 AI141576, KO1AI141576
• CI
  Canadian Institutes of Health Research

  Awards: OV4-170643, grant OV4-170643
• NS
  Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada

  Award: 170643