Supply and demand shocks in the COVID-19 pandemic: an industry and occupation perspective

We provide quantitative predictions of first-order supply and demand shocks for the US economy associated with the COVID-19 pandemic at the level of individual occupations and industries. To analyse the supply shock, we classify industries as essential or non-essential and construct a Remote Labour Index, which measures the ability of different occupations to work from home. Demand shocks are based on a study of the likely effect of a severe influenza epidemic developed by the US Congressional Budget Office. Compared to the pre-COVID period, these shocks would threaten around 20 per cent of the US economy's GDP, jeopardize 23 per cent of jobs, and reduce total wage income by 16 per cent. At the industry level,…

• OO
  Office of the Director of National Intelligence
• IA
  Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity

  Award: BAA-17-01
• NO
  NIH Office of the Director