Twenty‐First Century Drought Projections in the CMIP6 Forcing Scenarios
Goddard Institute for Space Studies · Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory · +3 more institutions
Abstract
Abstract There is strong evidence that climate change will increase drought risk and severity, but these conclusions depend on the regions, seasons, and drought metrics being considered. We analyze changes in drought across the hydrologic cycle (precipitation, soil moisture, and runoff) in projections from Phase Six of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). The multimodel ensemble shows robust drying in the mean state across many regions and metrics by the end of the 21st century, even following the more aggressive mitigation pathways (SSP1‐2.6 and SSP2‐4.5). Regional hotspots with strong drying include western North America, Central America, Europe and the Mediterranean, the Amazon, southern…
Citation impact
- FWCI
- 55.16
- Percentile
- 100%
- References
- 95
Authors
6- BIBenjamin I. CookCorresponding
Goddard Institute for Space Studies, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University
- JMJustin Mankin
Dartmouth College, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University
- KMKate Marvel
Goddard Institute for Space Studies, Columbia University
- PWPark Williams
Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University
- JEJason E. Smerdon
Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University
Topics & keywords
- Climatology
- Environmental science
- Coupled model intercomparison project
- Evapotranspiration
- Precipitation
- Water cycle
- Climate model
- Forcing (mathematics)
- Climate action