Large contribution from anthropogenic warming to an emerging North American megadrought

Williams, Park; Cook, Edward R.; Smerdon, Jason E.; Cook, Benjamin I.; Abatzoglou, John T.; Bolles, Kasey; Baek, Seung H.; Badger, Andrew M.; Livneh, Ben

doi:10.1126/science.aaz9600

articleScienceApr 16, 2020GREEN OA

Large contribution from anthropogenic warming to an emerging North American megadrought

PWPark Williams EREdward R. Cook JEJason E. Smerdon BIBenjamin I. Cook JTJohn T. Abatzoglou

Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory · Columbia University · +7 more institutions

PubMed

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Abstract

Severe and persistent 21st-century drought in southwestern North America (SWNA) motivates comparisons to medieval megadroughts and questions about the role of anthropogenic climate change. We use hydrological modeling and new 1200-year tree-ring reconstructions of summer soil moisture to demonstrate that the 2000-2018 SWNA drought was the second driest 19-year period since 800 CE, exceeded only by a late-1500s megadrought. The megadrought-like trajectory of 2000-2018 soil moisture was driven by natural variability superimposed on drying due to anthropogenic warming. Anthropogenic trends in temperature, relative humidity, and precipitation estimated from 31 climate models account for 47% (model interquartiles…

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Topics

Keywords

Global warming
Environmental science
Climate change
Geography
Climatology
Oceanography
Geology

UN Sustainable Development Goals

Life in Land

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