Spread and dynamics of the COVID-19 epidemic in Italy: Effects of emergency containment measures
Politecnico di Milano · Ca' Foscari University of Venice · +5 more institutions
Abstract
The spread of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Italy prompted drastic measures for transmission containment. We examine the effects of these interventions, based on modeling of the unfolding epidemic. We test modeling options of the spatially explicit type, suggested by the wave of infections spreading from the initial foci to the rest of Italy. We estimate parameters of a metacommunity Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered (SEIR)-like transmission model that includes a network of 107 provinces connected by mobility at high resolution, and the critical contribution of presymptomatic and asymptomatic transmission. We estimate a generalized reproduction number ([Formula: see text] = 3.60 [3.49 to 3.84]),…
Citation impact
- FWCI
- 35.78
- Percentile
- 100%
- References
- 85
Authors
7- MGMarino GattoCorresponding
Politecnico di Milano
- EBEnrico Bertuzzo
Ca' Foscari University of Venice, European Centre for Living Technology
- LMLorenzo Mari
Politecnico di Milano
- SMStefano Miccoli
Politecnico di Milano
- LCLuca Carraro
University of Zurich, Swiss Federal Institute of Aquatic Science and Technology
Topics & keywords
- Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)
- Containment (computer programming)
- 2019-20 coronavirus outbreak
- Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2)
- Pandemic
- Betacoronavirus
- Coronavirus Infections
- Outbreak
- Good health and well-being