Quantifying the impact of physical distance measures on the transmission of COVID-19 in the UK

Abstract Background To mitigate and slow the spread of COVID-19, many countries have adopted unprecedented physical distancing policies, including the UK. We evaluate whether these measures might be sufficient to control the epidemic by estimating their impact on the reproduction number ( R 0 , the average number of secondary cases generated per case). Methods We asked a representative sample of UK adults about their contact patterns on the previous day. The questionnaire was conducted online via email recruitment and documents the age and location of contacts and a measure of their intimacy (whether physical contact was made or not). In addition, we asked about adherence to different physical distancing…

• BA
  Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation

  Awards: OPP1183986, OPP1184344, 757699, OPP1191821, INV-003174
• WT
  Wellcome Trust

  Awards: Z/17/Z, 208812, 208812/Z/17/Z
• GO
  Government of the United Kingdom
• NI
  National Institute for Health Research Health Protection Research Unit
• NI
  National Institute for Health and Care Research

  Awards: 16/137/109, HPRU-2012-10096
• DO
  Department of Health and Social Care
• UO
  University of East Anglia
• KC
  King's College London
• NU
  Newcastle University
• EC
  European Commission

  Awards: 101003688, 757699, COVID-19
• PH
  Public Health England

  Award: HPRU-2012-10096
• DF
  Department for International Development
• GC
  Global Challenges Research Fund
• H2
  Horizon 2020

  Award: 101003688