Future of the human climate niche

All species have an environmental niche, and despite technological advances, humans are unlikely to be an exception. Here, we demonstrate that for millennia, human populations have resided in the same narrow part of the climatic envelope available on the globe, characterized by a major mode around ∼11 °C to 15 °C mean annual temperature (MAT). Supporting the fundamental nature of this temperature niche, current production of crops and livestock is largely limited to the same conditions, and the same optimum has been found for agricultural and nonagricultural economic output of countries through analyses of year-to-year variation. We show that in a business-as-usual climate change scenario, the geographical…

• NS
  National Science Foundation

  Award: SMA-1637171
• VF
  Villum Fonden

  Award: 16549
• SF
  Santa Fe Institute
• LT
  Leverhulme Trust

  Award: RPG-2018-046