Modeling Regional Interdependencies Using a Global Error-Correcting Macroeconometric Model

Financial institutions such as banks are ultimately exposed to macroeconomic fluctuations I the countries to which they have exposure, the most acute example being commercial lending to companies whose fortunes fluctuate with aggregate demand. This risk management need for financial institutions motivated us to build a compact global macroeconomic model capable of generating (point as well as density) forecasts for a core set of macroeconomic factors for a set of regions and countries which explicitly allows for interconnections and interdependencies that exist between national and international factors. This paper provides such a global modeling framework; making use of recent advances in the analysis of…