articleEurosurveillanceApr 30, 2020DIAMOND OA

Estimating the generation interval for coronavirus disease (COVID-19) based on symptom onset data, March 2020

TGTapiwa GanyaniCKCécile KremerDCDongxuan ChenATAndrea TorneriCFChristel Faes

Hasselt University · Leiden University Medical Center · +2 more institutions

PubMed
Indexed incrossrefdoajpubmed

Abstract

BackgroundEstimating key infectious disease parameters from the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak is essential for modelling studies and guiding intervention strategies.AimWe estimate the generation interval, serial interval, proportion of pre-symptomatic transmission and effective reproduction number of COVID-19. We illustrate that reproduction numbers calculated based on serial interval estimates can be biased.MethodsWe used outbreak data from clusters in Singapore and Tianjin, China to estimate the generation interval from symptom onset data while acknowledging uncertainty about the incubation period distribution and the underlying transmission network. From those estimates, we obtained the serial…

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645
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7

Topics & keywords

Topics
Keywords
  • Outbreak
  • Transmission (telecommunications)
  • Basic reproduction number
  • Contact tracing
  • Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)
  • Statistics
  • Confidence interval
  • Medicine
UN Sustainable Development Goals
  • Good health and well-being
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